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OI

OXFORD INDUSTRIES INC (OXM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 (fiscal 2024 third quarter ended Nov 2, 2024) saw revenue decline 5.7% to $308.0M and a GAAP diluted EPS loss of $0.25; adjusted diluted EPS was a loss of $0.11 as hurricanes and a highly promotional environment pressured traffic conversion and margins .
  • Management lowered full-year FY2024 guidance again: net sales to $1.50–$1.52B and GAAP EPS to $5.78–$5.98 (adjusted EPS $6.50–$6.70) due to weaker consumer trends and hurricane impacts; Q4 guidance set at net sales $375–$395M and adjusted EPS $1.18–$1.38 .
  • Key call messaging: post-election comps improved to slightly negative, with Lilly trending strongest; product newness (Tommy Bahama Indigo Palms denim, Luxe Sweaters; Lilly novelty) resonated, and wholesale bookings for resort/2025 are “very strong” on floors .
  • Near-term narrative drivers: confirmation of improving comps through December, holiday product performance, Q4 margin mix, and clarity on 2025 margin stabilization plan and capex moderation (Lyons DC build) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Post-election demand improved: “comp store sales post-election... have begun to reverse the disappointing trends” and Q4-to-date comps moved from double-digit negative to low single-digit negative; Lilly slightly positive .
    • Product newness/innovation resonated: Indigo Palms denim, Luxe Sweaters, Palm Voyage, and Lilly novelty drove traction, supporting Q4 margin mix and AOV uplift .
    • Food & beverage and outlets grew YoY in Q3 (+4% and +3%), and store growth continued (12 net new in Q3; total locations 342 vs 309 LY) .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Hurricanes and a promotional environment pressured results: estimated $4M lost sales in Q3 and ~$0.14/share impact; adjusted gross margin fell 100 bps to 63.0% on higher promo mix .
    • Full-price DTC weakened: retail down 6%, e-commerce down 11%; wholesale down 2% amid specialty channel challenges; GAAP operating margin fell to -2.0% .
    • Guidance cut again: FY2024 net sales and EPS lowered vs September guidance; Q4 includes additional $3M lost revenue and $0.11/share hurricane impact .

Financial Results

Consolidated Metrics vs Prior Quarters (oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$398.2 $419.9 $308.0
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$2.42 $2.57 $(0.25)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$2.66 $2.77 $(0.11)
Gross Margin % (GAAP)64.9% 63.1% 63.1%
Gross Margin % (Adjusted)65.4% 63.3% 63.0%
Operating Margin % (GAAP)13.2% 12.5% -2.0%
Operating Margin % (Adjusted)14.4% 13.5% -1.1%
SG&A as % of Net Sales53.5% 51.6% 66.5%

Q3 Year-over-Year

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$326.6 $308.0
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.68 $(0.25)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.01 $(0.11)
Gross Margin % (Adjusted)64.0% 63.0%
Operating Margin % (Adjusted)6.6% -1.1%

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Operating GroupQ3 2024 Net Sales ($M)Q3 2025 Net Sales ($M)% Change
Tommy Bahama$170.1 $161.3 (5.2%)
Lilly Pulitzer$76.3 $69.8 (8.5%)
Johnny Was$49.1 $46.1 (6.1%)
Emerging Brands$31.2 $30.9 (1.0%)
Total Company$326.6 $308.0 (5.7%)

KPIs (Q3 2025 channel composition and YoY)

KPIQ3 2025YoY Change
Full-price retail sales ($M)$99 -6%
E-commerce sales ($M)$101 -11%
DTC full-price total ($M)$200 -8%
Outlet sales ($M)$17 +3%
Food & beverage sales ($M)$24 +4%
Wholesale sales ($M)$67 -2%
Total locations (end of Q3)342 +33 vs 309 LY

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net SalesFY 2024$1.51B–$1.54B $1.50B–$1.52B Lowered
GAAP EPSFY 2024$6.28–$6.58 $5.78–$5.98 Lowered
Adjusted EPSFY 2024$7.00–$7.30 $6.50–$6.70 Lowered
Net SalesQ4 2024N/A$375M–$395M New
GAAP EPSQ4 2024N/A$1.02–$1.22 New
Adjusted EPSQ4 2024N/A$1.18–$1.38 New
Interest ExpenseFY 2024~$2M ~$3M Raised
Effective Tax RateFY 2024~24% ~23% Lowered
Capital ExpendituresFY 2024~$150M ~$150M Maintained
Hurricane ImpactQ4 2024N/A~$3M lost sales; ~$0.11/share New
DividendQ4 declared$0.67/share payable Nov 1, 2024 (Q2 release) $0.67/share payable Jan 31, 2025 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Consumer sentiment & promotionsLower sentiment; adopted conservative outlook; promo mix up; GM down Weak consumer; outlets/promos up; adjusted GM 63.3% Promotional environment intensified; adjusted GM 63.0%; comps improved post-election Improving comps in Q4; promo pressure persists
Store growth & Marlin BarsPlan 15–20 additional openings; 4 new Marlin Bars planned 30 openings since Q2’23; 4 Marlin Bars planned 33 openings since Q3’23; 4 Marlin Bars opened; 2 more planned Continued expansion; positive economics
Distribution center (Lyons, GA)~$90M FY capex for DC; timing adjustments ~$75M FY DC spend; capex ~$150M ~$75M FY DC spend; capex ~$150M; capex to moderate in 2025+ On track; capex moderation ahead
Wholesale channelDown 16% in Q1; specialty channel pressure Wholesale -5%; specialty challenged Wholesale -2%; specialty challenged; resort bookings strong Near-term pressure; improving bookings
Regional trends / hurricanesN/AN/ATwo major hurricanes; ~$4M Q3 lost sales; ~$0.14/share impact; additional Q4 impact Transient weather headwinds
Product performanceN/AN/AIndigo Palms denim; Luxe Sweaters; Palm Voyage; Lilly novelty success Newness driving demand
Technology/AI investmentsE-comm/omnichannel, data, cybersecurity, automation incl. AI Same initiatives Continuing investments incl. AI Ongoing digital build
Tariffs/macroN/AN/ATariff mitigation plan if China-specific; shift sourcing/vendor cost share/pricing Prepared contingency

Management Commentary

  • “We estimate that as a result of the hurricanes, we lost at least $4 million of sales… resulting in a cumulative $0.14 negative per share impact” .
  • “Comp store sales post-election… have begun to reverse the disappointing trends experienced the last several quarters” .
  • Product highlights: “Indigo Palms denim… men’s Luxe Sweater… Palm Voyage women’s collection… Lilly with… Ellorie Sweater” driving Q4 demand and margin mix .
  • Strategic focus for FY2025: “stabilizing and expanding our operating margin… through better expense control and leverage” .
  • Promotional backdrop: “very promotional out there… started maybe earlier this year” impacting mix and margins .

Q&A Highlights

  • Comps by brand: all improving to slightly negative; Lilly slightly positive; recovery started the weekend after the election .
  • Wholesale bookings: resort floor performance “very strong,” some at-once reorder demand; early 2025 bookings “very encouraged” .
  • Tariff strategy: if China-specific tariffs return, shift production, cost-share with vendors (~50/50), and selective small price increases as needed .
  • Promotional activity: extended event durations and slightly deeper discounts at Lilly; market promotions started earlier than usual; impacts embedded in guidance .
  • Marlin Bar economics: $3–$4M build cost, rent-free patio seating, efficient labor/rate, lifts traffic/store profitability; F&B ~2x sales per sq ft vs stand-alone store .
  • Q4 margins: expect flat YoY gross margin driven by mix and inventory position; end-of-season markdowns expected to be manageable .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2025 revenue and EPS was unavailable during this session due to SPGI daily request limit; therefore, actuals vs consensus comparison is not shown [GetEstimates error]. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.
  • Relative to company guidance issued Sept 11, Q3 actual sales/EPS came in below the guided ranges ($310–$325M; adjusted EPS $0.00–$0.20) versus actual $308.0M and $(0.11) adjusted EPS .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Hurricane and macro-driven miss in Q3, but comps improved post-election to slightly negative; monitor December cadence and Lilly’s strength as signals for Q4 trajectory .
  • Mix shift to promotions pressured margins; Q4 gross margin expected flat YoY as DTC mix improves and inventory is in good shape; watch markdown discipline into year-end .
  • Wholesale channel remains challenged (specialty), but resort bookings and floor performance are “very strong,” suggesting potential 2025 recovery vector .
  • FY2024 guidance lowered again (net sales $1.50–$1.52B; adjusted EPS $6.50–$6.70) and includes additional Q4 hurricane impact ($3M sales; $0.11/share); near-term setup favors cautious positioning into the print .
  • Strategic investments continue (stores, Marlin Bars, Lyons DC, digital/AI); capex to moderate in 2025+, supporting margin stabilization priorities .
  • Marlin Bars are accretive to traffic/profitability and enhance brand/customer acquisition, a differentiator within physical retail .
  • Tariff risk: company has a playbook (sourcing shifts, vendor cost-share, limited price increases) to mitigate potential China-specific tariffs; monitor policy developments into 2025 .
Sources: Oxford Industries Q3 FY2024 8-K and press release (Dec 11, 2024) **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:0]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:1]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:2]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:8]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:9]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:10]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:11]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:12]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_0]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_11]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_13]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_14]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_15]**; Q2 FY2024 8-K (Sep 11, 2024) **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:1]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:2]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:8]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:9]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:10]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:11]**; Q1 FY2024 8-K (Jun 12, 2024) **[75288_0001171843-24-003411_exh_991.htm:0]** **[75288_0001171843-24-003411_exh_991.htm:1]** **[75288_0001171843-24-003411_exh_991.htm:7]** **[75288_0001171843-24-003411_exh_991.htm:8]**; Q3 FY2024 Earnings Call Transcript (Dec 11, 2024) **[75288_OXM_3411475_1]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_2]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_3]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_4]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_5]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_6]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_7]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_8]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_9]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_10]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_11]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_12]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_13]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_14]**.