OI
OXFORD INDUSTRIES INC (OXM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 (fiscal 2024 third quarter ended Nov 2, 2024) saw revenue decline 5.7% to $308.0M and a GAAP diluted EPS loss of $0.25; adjusted diluted EPS was a loss of $0.11 as hurricanes and a highly promotional environment pressured traffic conversion and margins .
- Management lowered full-year FY2024 guidance again: net sales to $1.50–$1.52B and GAAP EPS to $5.78–$5.98 (adjusted EPS $6.50–$6.70) due to weaker consumer trends and hurricane impacts; Q4 guidance set at net sales $375–$395M and adjusted EPS $1.18–$1.38 .
- Key call messaging: post-election comps improved to slightly negative, with Lilly trending strongest; product newness (Tommy Bahama Indigo Palms denim, Luxe Sweaters; Lilly novelty) resonated, and wholesale bookings for resort/2025 are “very strong” on floors .
- Near-term narrative drivers: confirmation of improving comps through December, holiday product performance, Q4 margin mix, and clarity on 2025 margin stabilization plan and capex moderation (Lyons DC build) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- Post-election demand improved: “comp store sales post-election... have begun to reverse the disappointing trends” and Q4-to-date comps moved from double-digit negative to low single-digit negative; Lilly slightly positive .
- Product newness/innovation resonated: Indigo Palms denim, Luxe Sweaters, Palm Voyage, and Lilly novelty drove traction, supporting Q4 margin mix and AOV uplift .
- Food & beverage and outlets grew YoY in Q3 (+4% and +3%), and store growth continued (12 net new in Q3; total locations 342 vs 309 LY) .
- What Went Wrong
- Hurricanes and a promotional environment pressured results: estimated $4M lost sales in Q3 and ~$0.14/share impact; adjusted gross margin fell 100 bps to 63.0% on higher promo mix .
- Full-price DTC weakened: retail down 6%, e-commerce down 11%; wholesale down 2% amid specialty channel challenges; GAAP operating margin fell to -2.0% .
- Guidance cut again: FY2024 net sales and EPS lowered vs September guidance; Q4 includes additional $3M lost revenue and $0.11/share hurricane impact .
Financial Results
Consolidated Metrics vs Prior Quarters (oldest → newest)
Q3 Year-over-Year
Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
KPIs (Q3 2025 channel composition and YoY)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We estimate that as a result of the hurricanes, we lost at least $4 million of sales… resulting in a cumulative $0.14 negative per share impact” .
- “Comp store sales post-election… have begun to reverse the disappointing trends experienced the last several quarters” .
- Product highlights: “Indigo Palms denim… men’s Luxe Sweater… Palm Voyage women’s collection… Lilly with… Ellorie Sweater” driving Q4 demand and margin mix .
- Strategic focus for FY2025: “stabilizing and expanding our operating margin… through better expense control and leverage” .
- Promotional backdrop: “very promotional out there… started maybe earlier this year” impacting mix and margins .
Q&A Highlights
- Comps by brand: all improving to slightly negative; Lilly slightly positive; recovery started the weekend after the election .
- Wholesale bookings: resort floor performance “very strong,” some at-once reorder demand; early 2025 bookings “very encouraged” .
- Tariff strategy: if China-specific tariffs return, shift production, cost-share with vendors (~50/50), and selective small price increases as needed .
- Promotional activity: extended event durations and slightly deeper discounts at Lilly; market promotions started earlier than usual; impacts embedded in guidance .
- Marlin Bar economics: $3–$4M build cost, rent-free patio seating, efficient labor/rate, lifts traffic/store profitability; F&B ~2x sales per sq ft vs stand-alone store .
- Q4 margins: expect flat YoY gross margin driven by mix and inventory position; end-of-season markdowns expected to be manageable .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2025 revenue and EPS was unavailable during this session due to SPGI daily request limit; therefore, actuals vs consensus comparison is not shown [GetEstimates error]. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.
- Relative to company guidance issued Sept 11, Q3 actual sales/EPS came in below the guided ranges ($310–$325M; adjusted EPS $0.00–$0.20) versus actual $308.0M and $(0.11) adjusted EPS .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Hurricane and macro-driven miss in Q3, but comps improved post-election to slightly negative; monitor December cadence and Lilly’s strength as signals for Q4 trajectory .
- Mix shift to promotions pressured margins; Q4 gross margin expected flat YoY as DTC mix improves and inventory is in good shape; watch markdown discipline into year-end .
- Wholesale channel remains challenged (specialty), but resort bookings and floor performance are “very strong,” suggesting potential 2025 recovery vector .
- FY2024 guidance lowered again (net sales $1.50–$1.52B; adjusted EPS $6.50–$6.70) and includes additional Q4 hurricane impact ($3M sales; $0.11/share); near-term setup favors cautious positioning into the print .
- Strategic investments continue (stores, Marlin Bars, Lyons DC, digital/AI); capex to moderate in 2025+, supporting margin stabilization priorities .
- Marlin Bars are accretive to traffic/profitability and enhance brand/customer acquisition, a differentiator within physical retail .
- Tariff risk: company has a playbook (sourcing shifts, vendor cost-share, limited price increases) to mitigate potential China-specific tariffs; monitor policy developments into 2025 .
Sources: Oxford Industries Q3 FY2024 8-K and press release (Dec 11, 2024) **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:0]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:1]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:2]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:8]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:9]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:10]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:11]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000080_oxm-12112024xexx991.htm:12]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_0]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_11]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_13]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_14]** **[75288_e45dddbe2fab40d3a87464ebc5372c2b_15]**; Q2 FY2024 8-K (Sep 11, 2024) **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:1]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:2]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:8]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:9]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:10]** **[75288_0000075288-24-000057_oxm-09112024xexx991.htm:11]**; Q1 FY2024 8-K (Jun 12, 2024) **[75288_0001171843-24-003411_exh_991.htm:0]** **[75288_0001171843-24-003411_exh_991.htm:1]** **[75288_0001171843-24-003411_exh_991.htm:7]** **[75288_0001171843-24-003411_exh_991.htm:8]**; Q3 FY2024 Earnings Call Transcript (Dec 11, 2024) **[75288_OXM_3411475_1]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_2]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_3]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_4]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_5]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_6]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_7]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_8]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_9]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_10]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_11]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_12]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_13]** **[75288_OXM_3411475_14]**.